According to the different results of BGM ensemble and PHY ensemble, a new method is used to create the perturbation members. In this new method, BGM or both BGM and PHY are used according to the initial intensity of tropical cyclone.

• 基于BGM方法和PHY方法集合预报的不同特点,将两种方法相结合形成扰动成员,这一综合方法的集合预报效果好于单一方法的集合预报效果。