To effectively utilize the important information of the section interdependence during the time series of annual run-off,threshold auto-regressive(TAR) model is suggested to predict annual runoff.

• 为有效利用年径流时间序列资料所隐含的时序分段相依性这一重要信息，提出了用门限自回归模型(TAR)来预测年径流，并研制了TAR建模的一整套简便通用的方案。