The out-of-sample prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and the results show the former does better than the latter.

• 以此为基础，用估计所确定模型进行城市道路短期交通流的样本外预测，结果表明该模型不仅有较高的预测精度，且预测表现明显优于自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)模型。