Contrasting with the existing empirical results that almost universally reject the LCH/PIH, we find that the validity of the LCH/PIH depends crucially on different phases of the business cycle.

• 相较于国内过去的实证结果普遍拒绝生命循环／恒常所得假说，本文结果显示，生命循环／恒常所得假说是否得到支持，受景气循环的影响；