A new forecasting model combined the season tendency superposing and Markov forecasting methods together is presented to forecast the average yield of rapeseed.

• 摘要为提高利用季节性叠加趋势模型预测有较大波动性数据序列的预测精度，提出一种季节性叠加趋势-马尔柯夫组合预测新方法，并用于油菜平均产量的预测。